Signs of the AI Bubble Bursting

The frenzy that surrounded the progress of artificial intelligence (AI) over the past few years has now reached a turning point. Recently, former Google CEO Eric Schmidt warned in an article published in The New York Times that Silicon Valley’s reckless race toward artificial general intelligence, or AGI, is becoming genuinely harmful. AGI refers to a machine capable of thinking and reasoning at a human level or beyond. Although it remains purely science fiction for now, it seems to completely dominate discussions in the technology market.

According to Eric, America’s tech sector should focus on practical applications that create immediate value. He fears that while the U.S. gets absorbed in AGI hype, it may actually fall behind China—a country that has always applied AI from a pragmatic perspective and is deploying proven technologies in industry and administration.

Mustafa Suleyman, co-founder of DeepMind and currently Microsoft’s head of AI, echoes a similar sentiment. In his view, instead of getting caught up in the race to create human-like AI, the real goal should be to build AI for humans. There is a significant difference between these two concepts. He cautioned that this competition to develop conscious AI is becoming misguided for the entire industry and even the world, and it is urgent to reset expectations in a more realistic way.

Even OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, who usually speaks optimistically about AI, has recently expressed a more cautious tone. He acknowledged that an “AI bubble” has formed. In his words, intelligent people have become “overly excited around a small success.” He even drew a comparison to the dot-com bubble, where in the end someone will “lose an incredible amount of money.”

Why is this so important? First, current research and development costs for AI have reached alarming levels. Despite enormous investments, sustainable business models are not yet clear. Secondly, doubts are increasing about when AGI might actually become possible. Third, new regulations in various countries are slowing the pace of technological advancement. Meanwhile, company valuations remain sky-high, but investors are gradually shifting their attention toward stability and the creation of real, lasting value.

This correction is, in fact, positive for the AI sector in the long term. When excessive excitement and unrealistic expectations are shattered and the industry returns to practical applications, then genuine innovation becomes sustainable. It is crucial to focus on how AI can solve everyday problems in healthcare, education, agriculture, or industry. History shows that whenever a field becomes overly hyped, a wave of disappointment inevitably follows. But those who endure are the ones who build the foundations for the next revolution.

This global conversation is especially significant for Bangladesh. Developing countries like ours often end up making misplaced investments in the race for technology. If chasing AGI or science fiction dreams were to mislead our policymakers as well, it would be a grave mistake. Instead, we should prioritize the practical use of existing AI technologies.

Therefore, no matter how alarming the signs of an AI bubble bursting may seem, it is actually a necessary correction. It teaches us that dreams are essential, but they must be grounded in reality. This message is even more important for Bangladesh. We do not lack dreams, but transforming them into reality requires patience, guidance, and investment focused on results. If we can use AI effectively in sectors such as health, education, agriculture, economy, transportation, and industry, it can elevate our economy and society to new heights.