Saif Islam
Professor and Chair, Electrical & Computer Engineering
University of California – Davis [email protected]
In 2021, India spent 0.62% of its GDP (about $20 billion) on research and development. India aims to increase the total allocation to research and development to 2% or higher of GDP by 2030. Additionally, in 2021, Thailand spent 1.2% of its GDP, Malaysia 0.95%, China 2.43%, Turkey 1.4%, and South Korea 4.93% on research and development.
A few years ago, I wrote a blog about the relationship between research in science and technology and GDP, and I am sharing those thoughts here again.
The Role of Research in the Economy of the Fourth Industrial Revolution
–——————-Summary——————-
Investing in science and technology will boost our country’s GDP and economy manyfold. According to the International Labor Organization, due to automation in the Fourth Industrial Revolution, around 800 million workers worldwide will lose their jobs by 2030. Among them, our garments workers, migrant workers, and those in agriculture will be heavily affected. The economic backbone of our country rests mainly on the hard work of these three professional groups. On the other hand, according to the World Economic Forum, for every job lost in the fourth industrial revolution, four new roles will emerge, most of which will be technology-driven.
The Fourth Industrial Revolution, with its vastness, scope, opportunities, and complexities, will cause unprecedented social and economic transformation—something humanity has never witnessed before. Investment in scientific and technological research will rapidly accelerate our economic growth and social stability and prepare us for the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Investments in research multiply exponentially to generate employment, new revenues, and open doors to global trade. They help any nation to stand tall on the world stage.
(1) The pillars of today’s Bangladeshi economy.
For modern societies, the pillars that are most essential—whose neglect causes serious setbacks and hinders economic progress—place scientific and technological research at the very top. Especially for a country like ours, with a large population and challenged by natural adversities, fundamental solutions derived from research are even more crucial. This article explores the importance of research for economic growth, the significance of collective and societal support for research, the role of skilled expatriates around the world, and, finally, how a robust science and technology research policy proposed by top-level policymakers can deeply impact citizens. With examples from different countries, it shows how we too can achieve rapid economic growth and social stability, and prepare for the Fourth Industrial Revolution through the implementation of a consistent research policy.
Let us start by outlining the most significant sectors of our economy. The backbone of our country’s economic engine primarily rests on the hard work of three groups of professionals. First are the garment workers—most of whom are women—who are deprived of financial and educational opportunities. The second group is migrant workers scattered across various countries, spending the prime years of their lives as rights-deprived immigrants, separated from family, enduring neglect and hardship. Their remittances fill our foreign currency reserves today. The final group are the nation’s farmers—whose tireless efforts, come rain or shine, ensure our nation’s food security. These three groups have driven the country’s progress for decades. Figuratively speaking, these three economic sectors are like the three wheels of a vehicle. For the vehicle to run smoothly, a fourth wheel is vital. Experts have identified a young generation empowered by knowledge, science, and technology as the fourth wheel. They dream that the new generation will use technological advancements to drive the country further forward.
Let’s extend the vehicle analogy a bit further. If we want to construct a vehicle by adding the fourth wheel of technological advancement to the existing three economic sectors, we will need a skilled planner. A timely vehicle designed by a planner can steer the nation forward on its path to development. Who, then, is the driver or modern planner in this analogy? It is, collectively, a clear national policy on science and technology; inspiration and funding for research; close international technological collaboration; support, training, and generous grants for technology-based entrepreneurship. Such a driver has yet to emerge in our country. As a result, the pace of economic progress has not surpassed that of a three-wheel cargo truck. Yet most countries worldwide have progressed at the speed of a modern car in this era. We must remember: the faster we want our “vehicle” to go, the more skilled the builder and the more capable the driver must be.
There is a universally recognized fact among researchers: most of the scientists ever born in the history of the world are alive today. This reality highlights the deep role of science and technology in the contemporary world and the enormous number of trained people globally engaged in research.
To support this vast body of researchers, developed and rapidly developing countries spend 1 to 3 percent and, in some cases, more of their GDP on research. Why are these countries allocating so much to research? For two reasons. First, there is no alternative to research-based solutions for the complex problems of 21st-century societies and life. Second, investment in research yields returns that are hundreds or even thousands of times greater, enriching society economically, ensuring political stability, and protecting the nation from future uncertainties.
The role of research can be explained by the various stages of a tree’s growth. Take, for example, a black plum (jam) tree. Experts believe that jam is especially beneficial against diseases like cancer. A jam tree growing accidentally in the wild without any care is only so productive; with simple care, timely watering, fertilization, pest control, and weeding, its yield can increase manifold. Furthermore, through research and modern technology, scientists can make the tree or its seeds much more productive, with larger, juicier, tastier fruit that is resistant to drought and disease, making the tree highly profitable. Moreover, organized research can be done on harvesting techniques, juice preservation, packaging, use as a dietary supplement, export to international markets, advertising, market creation, clinical trials, etc. All these are costly processes and require state sponsorship. There is very little possibility that individuals or private initiatives will undertake such research. However, investment in such research can yield manifold, even hundreds of times greater, benefits in employment, revenue, and export earnings. And even if research on jam does not bring massive profits, the experience gained will surely be useful for similar sectors in the future.
(2) Investment in Research and Development.
Those who say that research is a luxury for our country should look at how our researchers have made Bangladesh self-sufficient in food through world-class research. Our population has more than doubled over the past few decades, while arable land has shrunk alarmingly. Yet, with improved methods, seeds, and fertilizers developed by our scientists, we have managed to produce sufficient food. Recently, Bangladeshi scientists have even mastered new techniques to harvest four crops a year from the same land. In some cases, our scientists have demonstrated the skills at home and abroad to tackle 21st-century problems on par with any other nation’s scientists. At one point, writer Humayun Ahmed claimed it was impossible to conduct world-class research in Bangladesh, but in his final days, he led an initiative to establish a cancer research center in the country. Our policymakers must understand that in today’s world, no nation can achieve economic emancipation by being only a consumer of technology.
According to UNESCO data, in 2016, the total expenditure on scientific and technological research and the percentage of GDP allocated to research by different nations were (in USD): Ethiopia $790 million (0.61%), Vietnam $870 million (0.21%), Pakistan $2.4 billion (0.29%), Malaysia $10.6 billion (1.3%), Singapore $10 billion (2.2%), Turkey $15.3 billion (1%), India $66.5 billion (0.9%), South Korea $91.6 billion (4.3%), China $451.9 billion (2.1%), and the United States $541.1 billion (2.7%). In the same year (2016), Bangladesh spent less than 0.02% of GDP—less than $300 million—on research. It is worth mentioning that in the 2017-18 budget, the total allocation for Bangladesh’s Ministry of Science and Technology was about $120 million (9.7 billion BDT). Only a small fraction of the Science and Technology Ministry budget goes toward research. On the other hand, the 2017-18 budget for the Bangladesh Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (BCSIR) was $220 million. Such meager funding for research is a discouraging trend and reveals the intellectual disconnect of our policymakers.
In 2014, I had the opportunity to attend an international technology workshop in Ankara. Over three days, several leaders from Turkey’s Ministry of Science, Industry, and Technology stayed with the invited guests and scientists. Deputy Minister Davut Kavranoglu began his brief speech like this: “In 2012, Turkey earned an average of $10 for every kilogram of exported goods. At the same time, Germany earned over $100 for every kilogram of its exports. By comparison, in the 1960s, Turkey earned just over ten cents per kilogram—almost 100 times less than today. How will you explain this huge difference in value and foreign exchange earnings?” he asked the international workshop participants. Without waiting for an answer, he continued, “Turkey’s annual exports total $150 billion. Yet, for an equivalent amount of exported goods by weight, Germany earns $1.5 trillion (1,500 billion). This means that buyers worldwide are willing to pay ten times more for German products than Turkish ones. The populations of the two countries are similar, though Turkey is about twice the size of Germany. So what explains the difference? Why does Apple Computer have an average export price of over $2,000 per kilogram of product? In 1995, Turkey’s GDP was $116 billion. Sixteen years later, in 2012, Turkey’s GDP had grown sixfold to $800 billion. We want to match Germany’s current GDP within 12 more years, by 2025. That means we plan to increase Turkey’s GDP by 4.5 times, to $3.5 trillion by 2025, and join the world’s top ten economies.”
Like anyone else, I found these claims unbelievable—and I might have dismissed his words entirely if I didn’t know that Deputy Minister Davut Kavranoglu had a PhD in engineering from Caltech, served as a professor for many years, and is the architect of all the Ministry’s future plans. In pin-drop silence, I listened to his visionary words. “Today, Turkey spends 0.7% of its GDP on research, with around 30,000 researchers working across all research fields. In 1995, there were fewer than 10,000 researchers in Turkey. By 2025, we will keep raising research allocations and take it up to as high as 3% of GDP. This would translate to annual research investments of over $100 billion. We expect around 300,000 researchers to be making direct contributions to our economy.” In other words, Turkey plans to increase its number of researchers by thirtyfold by 2025, raising the quality and value of its products to match those of Germany. And just in the research sector, they will spend more than three times Bangladesh’s entire current national budget. I might have laughed off Deputy Minister Davut Kavranoglu’s statement if I didn’t know that Turkey had already achieved nearly 10% economic growth for several years prior.
Turkey’s GDP in 2025 did not match Germany’s! That was an over-ambitious dream. Despite political instability, autocratic leadership, and the refugee crisis from neighboring Syria and Iraq, Turkey’s GDP reached $1.437 trillion. Their research allocation didn’t increase to 3% of GDP, but made it to 1.4%.
In 1995, Bangladesh’s GDP was $38 billion. In 2012, it tripled to $116 billion. In the same period, Turkey’s GDP grew sixfold and, aimed at even faster growth, increased its research investment every year.
In the 1990s, before I went to Ankara as a student, Turkey’s economic, political, and social situation was rather similar to today’s Bangladesh. While they didn’t have dynastic democracy, the same leaders dominated politics for decades, leaving people frustrated. Youths regarded politicians as self-serving, disrespectful bandits. Whenever politicians’ unchecked dominance led to widespread hostage-taking and instability engulfed society, the military would step in with harsh, self-destructive measures, pushing the country back repeatedly. As in today’s Bangladesh, remittances from Turkish workers in Germany and the Middle East were one of the major sources of income. At that time, research-driven economics had not yet taken root in society. In less than two decades, that country, driven by long-term, technology-based national planning, now sits at 16th in global wealth rankings.
During a coffee break, I asked Deputy Minister Davut Kavranoglu how Turkey achieved nearly 10% annual growth. He replied—A large tree grows rapidly in its first few years if planted with good seeds, given proper care, water, sunlight, fertilizer, and protected from livestock or pests. Growth slows once it’s mature. For a huge economy like the US, 1 or 2% annual growth equals about 5 to 10% growth in a smaller economy like Turkey. If there is no corruption, lack of planning, technological backwardness, social instability, nepotism, or politicians’ self-interested attitude, any developing country can easily achieve 20% growth rates. Countries like Azerbaijan, China, Angola, and several others have achieved 10% to 30% growth some years. The knowledge, wisdom, intellect, and educational attainment of Turkey’s deputy minister and his advisors impressed me hugely. By the late 1990s and early 2000s, Turkey established many research universities. A massive number of expatriate Turkish scientists, engineers, and entrepreneurs returned to the country, benefiting from the environment it created. Collective intellect, intuition, planning, and a vast force of researchers safeguarded Turkey’s economy while their neighbor Greece became financially bankrupt, and Syria and Iraq sank into devastating civil wars.
A harsh, unfortunate truth for 2025 is that autocratic arrogance, political disorder, and intolerance are dragging today’s Turkey back to the 1980s. Many talented Turkish scientists, engineers, and researchers are now leaving the country en masse. Davut Kavranoglu himself resigned several years ago.
(3) The role of skilled expatriates.
If we are to match our nearest neighbor India and spend the same percentage of GDP on research over the next decade (0.62% of GDP), our annual research budget would need to be 357.5 billion BDT ($2.86 billion). This calculation is based on a 2024 GDP of about $450 billion. The unfortunate truth is we are currently spending less than 0.3% of GDP on research. Note that even Ethiopia spends three times more on research than we do. For comparison with the West—just one campus, the University of California Davis (where I work), had a research budget more than four times the size of BCSIR’s in the 2017-18 fiscal year.
If, by 2023, we plan to spend 1% of GDP on research over the next five years, what will our researchers do with that money? Where will we find enough world-class researchers and laboratories? In which sectors will we allocate resources? How will we manage such a huge undertaking? To answer these questions, we must think outside the box. There needs to be national-level discussions among domestic scientists, researchers, and administrators; extensive media coverage, parliamentary and newspaper debates; we need to identify which areas countries around the world are focusing on, and which of our national problems are most urgent. Developing countries are skillfully utilizing their accomplished expatriates in this regard. Even the United Nations has a knowledge-transfer program (TOKTEN) via expatriate citizens.
To determine long-term research plans, implementation methods, and priorities, many administrations are inviting qualified expatriates to return with open arms. Chinese leaders have recently included a milestone event in their modernization program (the Thousand Talents Program): a project to bring a thousand talented researchers back to China. This program is open to researchers of Chinese or any other background, giving them financial support and the opportunity to open laboratories at their preferred universities. The single goal—to rapidly elevate the quality of Chinese research to world standards. For three decades, India has invited its skilled expatriate professionals and experts back to the country and has benefited greatly. A vast number of Indian expatriates have returned with wealth, education, and deep expertise in science, technology, and business. During Mahathir’s rule in Malaysia, he personally called and persuaded many qualified expatriates to return home.
Every expatriate always seeks opportunities to repay their debt to their homeland—to return if possible, no matter their country. Most Bangladeshis are particularly attached to their homeland and always wish to contribute. To harness their strength and talent requires reasonable guidance, capable leadership, and planning. Every year, our enthusiastic young people leave home to pursue PhDs abroad. Many are so eager, creative, and talented that if even a small fraction returned, the country would experience an economic revolution. Those going for their PhDs to Korea, Malaysia, China, Singapore, India, and elsewhere could have pursued doctoral studies on Bangladeshi problems at home—if we could keep the research machinery running. Once, students from many Asian countries came to Bangladesh to study. Today, we are witnessing a reversal of this trend.
In successful societies, politicians, planners, and scientists play the roles of entrepreneurs and trailblazers in establishing a research-driven economy. Who else bears responsibility and should participate? Garment workers, migrant laborers, and farmers have already given everything they have to the nation. Most in these three lower-income professions have nothing more to give. Being engulfed in the struggle for survival, they lack time to judge political, technological, economic, or social policies.
The segment of the middle class that could have generated a strong economy and healthy politics is now largely seeking opportunities to migrate to Europe, Australia, Canada, and America. We have not been able to provide them with the necessary tools for development, training, or grants. Talented professors, instructors, and energetic youths from top universities, who could have shaped Bangladesh’s future in laboratories and, with state seed funding, founded world-famous organizations, instead spend their days navigating unbearable traffic to teach at multiple universities for a basic income, or waste their talents as consultants. Research could and should have been their primary livelihood, amplifying their creativity and talents to illuminate the nation a hundredfold and impacting the economy many thousands of times over.
Lack of hope and direction prompted mass migration from Bangladesh, Vietnam, Pakistan, the Philippines, Iran, and Indonesia—legally or illegally—over previous decades. Today, in most of these countries, the youth are finding opportunities and favorable environments to return home—except in our case. As a student, I witnessed Bangladeshi young men losing their lives crossing snow-covered rivers at the Greek-Turkish border, hiding for days in foreign forests from police and wild animals, while trying to migrate illegally. Those who succeeded lived for years illegally abroad, selling their labor cheaply in miserable conditions. Many could otherwise have become highly educated, productive citizens, playing the skilled roles needed in a research-driven economy—as designers, builders, workers, and employees of multinational companies.
Many educated Bangladeshis who emigrated in middle age have failed to re-establish themselves in foreign lands. Yet, even knowing this risk, many still migrate for the future of their children and themselves. In contrast, most developing nations today are seeing the opposite trend. If we remain apathetic to developing and utilizing our manpower, many countries in today’s “global village” will eagerly welcome our best people—much as Australia and Canada are now doing. But we could also reverse this trend. During Mahathir’s administration, he created a trend of personally calling and bringing back qualified expatriates to Malaysia; today’s economic successes are a direct result of that legacy.
The most talented and fortunate in our country are leaving, whether by choice or necessity. Those who remain are ground down by the culture of unhealthy politics, struggling just to get by. Very few expatriates return today, and many who do soon leave again. This one-way flow of talent prevents our country from standing tall—we are tilting to one side. Promoting research in society could end this destructive trend.
Even if we manage to build a four-wheeled car, the driver will be helpless if the vehicle does not receive fuel, water, lubricants, etc. in proper amounts. If the car bears the name of a political party, others, given the chance, will sabotage it—breaking windows, doors, or setting it on fire, as we have seen over the past three decades. The activities of a driver linked to politics may favor the ruling party’s interests but may not benefit the nation. Once their actions come into question, all their good work becomes suspect. Therefore, we need an apolitical national policy with the highest level of support, which cannot be abused for narrow political advantage. This is a complex problem, but many countries have solved it successfully.
The current generation and our educated society are not unaware of the future world. They know there are very few jobs here that match their advanced degrees, strong academic backgrounds, and acquired experience. The primary engines of our current economy—garments, overseas labor, and agriculture—do not attract the educated population. In most countries, as development advances, the proportion of the workforce in these fields steadily declines. In their places, more technology-driven, intellectual property-based, and training-oriented high-income jobs grow.
affordablecarsales.co.nz
Leave a comment